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Survey-grounded synthetic agents from high-dimensional opinion data (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Guillermo
Palabras clave:
AI agents LLMs Surveys
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The Untouchables: Why We Don't Demand Taxes on Big Tech? (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, López-Cariboni
Palabras clave:
Super Rich Experiment Feasibility Capital Flight
Medio de divulgación: Internet
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Detecting AI-Generated Responses in Surveys: A Behavioral–Linguistic Toolkit (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Shir
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Augmentation or Displacement? The Behavioral and Policy Implications of AI-Assisted Work (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Shir
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Collective Agreements in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Paolo
Palabras clave:
Automation AI Unions CBA
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When Machines Manage: Workers' Demands and Trade Union Responses to AI (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Paolo
Palabras clave:
Automation AI Unions
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The Political Economy of Automation and Fragmented Production in a Global Economy: Evidence from Mexico (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Carles
, Erica
Palabras clave:
Automation Mexico Organized Crime Populism
Medio de divulgación: Internet
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5553058
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A Networked Approach to Addressing Underrepresentation in the Social and Behavioral Sciences (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Fernando
, Chie
, Tania
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Sustaining Pathway Programs in the Social Sciences (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Fernando
, Chie
, Yeneca
, Tania
Medio de divulgación: Internet
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AI's Economy and Its Political and Institutional Consequences (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Carles
, Michael
, Daniel
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Can Taxing the Top 1 % Unite Labor? Narrative Politics and Redistribution from the Super-Rich (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, López-Cariboni
Medio de divulgación: Internet
https://gonzalez-rostani.com/img/Papers/manuscript_GR_LC.pdf
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Navigating Uncertainty: How Experience Shapes Perception and Politics in the AI Era (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Tobias
Medio de divulgación: Internet
https://gonzalez-rostani.com/img/Papers/Subjective_Techrisk.pdf
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Creating Pathways to Graduate Success: Reducing Barriers for Underrepresented Minority Students in the Social Sciences (2026)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Chie
, Tania
Medio de divulgación: Internet
https://gonzalez-rostani.com/img/Papers/MPE2.pdf
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Techno-Optimists and Pessimists: Exploring the Perceptions and Policy Preferences in the Technological Era (2024)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
This study examines public perceptions of technological change, focusing on subjective concerns, sociotropic views, and direct exposure to technology, as well as the impact of these factors on policy preferences. Using a U.S. survey and and innovative measures, we categorize individuals into "enthusiasts," "concerned," and "exposed" groups, analyzing their demographic and political profiles. We find that enthusiasts?generally older, male, upper-class, and often Democrats?perceive technology as beneficial for productivity and tend to support pro-immigration, pro-trade, and pro-offshoring policies. In contrast, concerned individuals, who are typically younger, female, lower-class, and Republican, show apprehension toward technological impacts and favor anti-trade and anti-immigration policies. Those with direct technological exposure, predominantly male, non-white, upper-class, and engaged in non-routine jobs, align with Trump-like policies and exhibit ethnocentric tendencies. Importantly, political inclinations are more strongly associated with sociotropic concerns and future anxieties than with personal fears, and weakly correlated with routine-task intensity (RTI). To enhance external validity, we expand our analysis using a large cross-country survey, revealing that, contrary to conventional expectations, those in cognitively demanding roles report heightened perceived risks, indicating that direct exposure to technology, rather than skill level alone, shapes employment-related concerns.
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Automation of Production in a Global Context: Implications for the Global South (2024)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
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The path from Automation to Populist Political Behavior (2024)Trabajo relevante
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
Medio de divulgación: Internet
https://gonzalez-rostani.com/img/Papers/APSA_Automation_Culture.pdf
I investigate the impact of automation exposure on political behavior in post-industrial societies, with a specific focus on the support for populism. I examine the potential causal mechanisms by exploring the interplay between economic and cultural factors. Through a parallel encouragement design survey experiment conducted in the US, I divide the sample into two groups: one group is randomly assigned to the treatment condition either related to exposure to robots and AI replacing jobs or a control condition related to technological development; the other group experiences manipulation of both the treatment and the encouragement of mediators (marginalization and nostalgia). My findings reveal that feelings of marginalization and nostalgia mediate the effects of technological change on support for populism and illiberal policies. To enhance external validity, I implement mediation analysis using survey data from the European Social Survey from 2012 to 2016. The results help us understand how structural changes in labor markets and cultural factors impact political behavior and inequality.
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You Cannot Stop It If You Can?t See It: Introducing a New Scalable System to Measure Populist Narratives at Higher Resolution (2024)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Michael Colaresi
Medio de divulgación: Otros
There is an ongoing debate about whether there has been a populist Zeitgeist over the last 20 years and whether this phenomenon looks similar across the world. Existing approaches rely on human coding, expert surveys, or dictionary-based analysis and suffer from multiple limitations: resource-intensiveness, lack of comparability, and human-arbitrariness. To help overcome some of these limitations, I suggest translating the measure of populism into a supervised machine learning problem. Using text from party manifestos from seven English-speaker countries between 2000 to 2020, I train a wide variety of algorithms based on labels from the Global Party Survey in 2019. My results are consistent with the literature of each country case and differ from the estimation using a single dictionary without context-adaptation. I also study the associations between populism and ideology, finding that there are populist parties across all the left-right spectrum. Moreover, I find evidence that higher scores of populism are associated with more support for welfare state limitations and non-material dimensions such as nationalism, international integration skepticism, while less support for multiculturalism.
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Immigration Shocks and Politicians? Rhetoric: Evidence from The Venezuelan Migration Crisis (2024)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Incio
, Lezama
https://gonzalez-rostani.com/img/Papers/Immigration.pdf
How does an immigration shock affect politicians? discourses? This study examines the sudden influx of Venezuelan migrants into Latin American countries. We argue that such events alter politicians? agendas, creating opportunities to frame new issues from their perspectives. Analyzing over 3 million tweets by parliament members from 2013 to 2021 in Chile and Peru, we employ computational textanalysis methods, from simple dictionaries to complex techniques like unsupervised topic analysis and OpenAI, along with an instrumental variable strategy. Our results suggest that after the immigration shock, politicians emphasized the immigration issue without any party family monopolizing it. We find little evidence that regional exposure explains the issue?s salience, suggesting a disconnection from local experiences. Our findings reveal a novel channel for increased salience: right-wing politicians criticized the Venezuelan regime and socialism instead of increasing anti-immigration sentiment, while left-wing politicians promoted pro-immigration attitudes consistent with contact theory. This work enhances our understanding of the politicization of immigration in South-South contexts in the digital age.
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A Spatiotemporal Approach to Model Multilevel Data Structures (2024)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Hays
Medio de divulgación: Internet
The analysis of multilevel data is common in political science and the social sciences more generally. We examine the case where random community-level effects cluster geographically in space. Ignoring this spatial dependence leads to inefficient coefficient estimates and overconfident standard errors. We propose a two-step spatial feasible generalized least squares estimator that, under empirically identifiable conditions, provides relatively efficient coefficient estimates and accurate standard errors compared to the maximum likelihood estimation of non-spatial models.
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Who Influences Whom? Analyzing the Interplay of Mainstream and Outsider Parties in Social Media Campaigns (2024)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
Medio de divulgación: Internet
Do mainstream parties respond to outsider parties, or vice versa? Previous research suggests an alignment between the issues prioritized by both mainstream and outsider parties, but definitive evidence on who influences whom is limited. I investigate this with fine-grained temporal analyses of YouTube videos posted by political parties in the year leading up to elections since 2015 in the UK and Spain. Using dictionaries, Wordscores, and transformer-based models, I classify the content by issues and communication characteristics, such as whether a message is populist or extreme. I then apply vector autoregression models to explore short-term dynamics of rhetorical influence. In the UK, a majoritarian system, mainstream right and left parties respond to each other, while the outsider right follows mainstream parties. In Spain, a multi-party system, mainstream parties influence each other, and outsider parties influence the mainstream left and each other. More importantly, in both systems, mainstream parties more often lead than follow outsiders' messages. These findings have important implications for understanding party dynamics and competition during electoral campaigns.
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Campaign Contributions and Economic Inequality in the US (2022)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
, Jude Hays
Medio de divulgación: Otros
Research on the political consequences of economic inequality focuses almost exclusively on relative inequality, using measures such as percentile ratios and gini coefficients for empirical analysis. Measures of relative inequality facilitate empirical comparison across space and time, but they do not always match theories that connect economic and political inequality. We demonstrate with a simple theoretical model that proportionate increases in income, gains that preserve levels of relative inequality in the population but increase levels of absolute inequality, generate greater inequality in campaign contributions from the poor and rich. Using data from U.S. Congressional Districts, we show empirically that greater levels of absolute inequality, rather than relative inequality, are in fact associated with larger differences in the rate at which rich and poor constituents make campaign contributions.
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Unevenly Distribution of Minimum Wage Effects Across Firms: Does Firms? Size Matters? (2022)
Completo
González-Rostani, Valentina
Under Review
Medio de divulgación: Otros
Between 2004 and 2006, the Uruguayan government implemented significant changes in labor market policy by raising minimum wages and installing coordinated wage bargaining for all firms. Together, these two policies implied a shock in firms? labor regulations. However, small firms were more exposed to the rise of minimum wage than their large counterparts. I exploit this fact to evaluate the impacts of minimum wages on hiring conditions, such as the evolution of wages and social security contributions (SSC) and the distribution of skilled workers. Adopting a fuzzy differences-in-differences approach, I demonstrate that the effects of the minimum wage hike were unevenly distributed across firms. After the policy, social security contributions increased more in small firms, and wages increased more in large ones. Moreover, the distribution of skills across firms shows a composition effect by which small firms lost skilled employees relative to large ones. Overall, the policy increased the cost of labor in small firms more than in large firms. The policy also seems to affect workers? sorting by helping more productive workers move toward larger firms. The findings have important implications for understanding wage bargaining politics.